Friday, September 14, 2018
Florence and the Rain Machine
The real 'elephant in the room' is the development of the Outer Banks, the barrier islands along the North Carolina coast, which are being inundated, and other low-lying coastal areas. Even under the best conditions, barrier islands are ephemeral- they go, move, shift with the currents. I'm not a big Bible reader, but there's something to be said about not building a house on a foundation of sand.
To compound the dangers of flooding, North Carolina is infamous for its pig manure lagoons which, if flooding causes them to overtop their 'banks', will contaminate rivers and groundwater before the fecal flood pollutes the coastal waters, possibly causing algal blooms and sea life die-off. Even worse than the pigshit is the coal ash from power plants, which contains heavy metals, which are even worse than fecal coliforms. I'm of the opinion that a 'war on coal' is a good thing, but I'm one of those 'nanny state' regulation junkies.
One concern that I have is that the coastal devastation in the wake of Florence will result in an orgy of Disaster Capitalism. One particularly vulnerable population is the Gullah Geechee community of the low country and offshore islands, who have largely preserved their African heritage through the centuries. The Gullah Geechee are already beleaguered by global warming and predatory developers, and a destructive storm might be the factor which pushes them over the edge.
At any rate, I have a suspicion that Florence will be another unmitigated disaster, partly due to Trumpian incompetence, partly due to rapacious disaster capitalism.
Post title taken from one of contemporary pop music's most dramatic performers...
Saturday, June 26, 2021
A Foundation of Sand
I haven't been able to devote too much time to coverage of the horrific condominium collapse in Miami, but it does concern a couple of my interests, namely the need for strict regulations on developers, and the foolishness of building on barrier islands... I'm not a big Bible guy, but that bestselling book has something to say about building a house on a foundation of sand. While I was shocked by footage of the collapse, so reminiscent of the collapse of the Twin Towers visually, the thing which really grabbed my attention was the map of the locality:
I just want you all to get an idea of where this condominium building was built. On that sliver of land sitting on a delicate coral aquifer, right on the water. #Surfside pic.twitter.com/oxtjXE5gYr
— Cuban Being (@cmkinmia) June 25, 2021
The building was built on a barrier island, and with rising sea levels, water infiltrates the foundation, corroding steel supports and degrading concrete. A building doesn't even need to be underwater to be rendered uninhabitable. A 2018 engineering report indicated that the building had major structural damage, it "detailed significant cracks and breaks in the concrete, which required repairs to ensure the safety of the residents and the public." Other reports indicate that the building was inexorably subsiding.
Of course, the conspiratorial fever swamps are abuzz with shitty narratives, from the relatively mundane domestic terrorism accusation to the outré war to save the Mole Children whackaloonery. The simple fact of the matter, so inconvenient to right wingers because it contradicts their worldview, is that the Miami building collapse is the horrific synergy of deregulation, a Republican tenet, and global warming, which Republicans deny... it's so much easier to opine that Q Team and the White Hats demolished the building to save some Tunnel Tots from Hillary Clinton's adrenochrome harvesting scheme.
Returning to sober, thoughtful mode, I can't place any trust on the government of the state of Florida putting any regulatory burdens on oceanfront developers. Oddly enough, I think the one force which can stop the construction of large buildings on barrier islands is the insurance industry. If it becomes impossible to insure these buildings, and if insurance companies refuse to pay for claims involving improperly sited buildings, the developers will be forced to comply... once they take a bath financially. Of course, that won't bring back the victims of this building collapse, or alleviate the suffering of victims of future collapses.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Secret Science Club Post Lecture Recap: Sandy Anniversary
Dr Sobel jumped right into the topic, showing a slide depicting the October 24th GFS forecast, a deterministic model of weather conditions. This particular model showed that the jetstream had dipped far south, and the 10/24 model produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts was an accurate model of the actual course of the storm. On the Wednesday before the storm hit the NY metro area, models indicated uncertainty about the eventual landfall- storms are chaotic systems so slight changes in the characteristics will result in larger eventual changes. On Thursday, the five-day forecast produced by the National Hurricane Center was dead-on. Dr Sobel noted that weather forecasts are great scientific achievements resulting from steady progress. Better computers allow forecasters to make better models, therefore they make better predictions.
When Sandy made landfall, it was a post-tropical storm- it was by no means a weaker storm, but it lacked the symmetry typical of tropical cyclones. Tropical storms are symmetrical and are warm at their center, they gain their energy from the warmth of the ocean. Winter storms are asymmetrical and get their energy from the jet stream- the temperature difference between the pole and the equator give them energy. Sandy was cold at the center- the storm was a merging of a tropichttp://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/national-hurricane-center-warning-system-article-1.1308130al storm and a winter storm. The wind speed was 65 knots, which placed it firmly in Category 1 of the Saffir-Simpson scale. The storm was vast, with a huge area of winds and a worse storm surge. Because the storm was post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center did not issue hurricane watches or warnings north of Virginia. Under NOAA's rules, a hurricane advisory could not be issued due to the nature of the storm, a policy which has been changed. Gale warnings were made, though. On 10/27, then-mayor Michael Bloomberg held a press conference urging New Yorkers to stay indoors and to avoid low-lying areas, while warning of MTA shutdowns.
Sandy was characterized by its dramatic storm surge, basically a slow pileup of water. While the local officials did many things right, they did not issue evacuation orders on Saturday due to the lack of hurricane advisories. Dr Sobel noted that the water gets high no matter what the storm is called. NOAA's current policy is to issue hurricane warnings even if dangerous storms are not technically hurricanes.
On Sunday, 10/28, evacuation orders were given for evacuation zone "A" and the transit system was shut down. There were attempts to protect infrastructure- the electrical signals in threatened subway tunnels were ripped out and certain adits to the system were boarded up. There was a partial pre-emptive shutdown of the power grid. No evacuation orders were given to nursing homes.
Ultimately, Sandy resulted in 117 deaths in the U.S. and 50-65 billion dollars in economic damage. Most of the loss of life occurred in low-lying areas such as barrier islands, which Dr Sobel characterized as "glorified sand dunes". Among the slides depicting the destruction wrought by the storm, a picture of Mantoloking, NJ was particularly scary, as was a photo of the Hoboken, NJ PATH station.
A perusal of the NYC inundation map reveals that every area that flooded was wetlands, landfill, or barrier islands. Dr Sobel noted that the original coastline of lower Manhattan was Water St. He wryly noted that the idea that there would be flooding in Lower Manhattan shouldn't have been shocking.
Two of the worst-hit areas were Breezy Point in Queens, which was ravaged by a wildfire as well as by flooding, and Staten Island's Oakwood Beach.
Half of Manhattan was affected by a power outage and there was substantial flooding as a result of a fourteen foot storm surge. Gasoline supply chains were disrupted for weeks in the region.
Wise short-term decisions that saved many lives and much property were made, such as zone A evacuations and the measures taken to protect the subway system. The region's infrastructure, though was unprepared to withstand the storm... the South Ferry subway station, renovated in 2009, was totaled, needing $600 million dollars in repairs.
Dr Sobel then went over damage estimates from old storms, mentioning a 1992 nor'easter which flooded PATH stations. In 2011, Hurricane Irene resulted in flooding, mainly in New England and upstate New York.
Sandy was a rare event, but no scientific assessment indicated that it was an impossible event. The timing of Sandy was particularly bad- the fourteen foot storm surge coincided with a five foot high tide. In contrast, the thirteen foot storm surge from the 1821 hurricane which hit NYC hit during low tide.
Dr Sobel then brought up the role of availability bias in our reaction to storms. If a particular issue isn't pressing, people tend not to pay much attention to it. If something happens all the time, there's no need to really think about our responses to it, it becomes the "new normal". It often takes catastrophic events to inspire actions meant to mitigate damage.
He brought up the Dutch response to the 1953 Delta Flood which resulted in approximately 1800 deaths and massive economic damage. The Dutch government responded with the "Delta Works", a system of flood barriers. The Thames flood barrier was modeled on the Dutch Delta works. In 1938, the hurricane known as the Long Island Express slammed into the Northeast, resulting in approximately 600 deaths. The estuary cities of Stamford, CT, New Bedford, MA, and Providence, RI were flooded. In the 1960's a hurricane barrier was built to protect Stamford.
Dr Sobel touched on plans to protect New York City from flooding, asking "What will happen post-Sandy?" He brought up PlaNYC, a blueprint for stability and resiliency for the city. He noted that there were no plans for great storm surge barriers in New York harbor- the plan relies on local flood walls and the elevation of infrastructure.
The lecture then moved on to the topic of climate change. Dr Sobel noted the Bloomberg headline: "It's Global Warming, Stupid." He noted that it's hard to pin one storm on climate change. Human influence is not clearly detected in any upward trend in storms- there is a lot of natural variability. Currently, it is thought that climate change may result in fewer tropical cyclones, but that the intensity of storms is likely to increase, on average. Little is known about storms like Sandy, which was peculiar due to its route and its tropical/winter storm hybridization. There is a clear link between global warming and sea level rise, though. This has a bearing on flooding- in the old Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, each category of storm was typically categorized by three feet of storm surge. Sandy, however, was characterized by Category 1 winds and a Category 3 storm surge. With climate change, it's not unreasonable to jack up storm surge predictions one category. With sea-level rise, weaker storms will still result in higher surges.
Dr Sobel then stated that willful denialism of climate change is the most acute problem that we face in reacting to storms. Denialism makes taking long-term steps and unfamiliar risks to deal with storms. Availability bias is as much of a hindrance as a help. We can't wait for the problem to be compounded, though. He then ran down a quick summary of long-term predictions about weather events- the effect of climate change on tornadoes is largely unknown, but heat waves will definitely be more frequent, as will be coastal flooding. Climate change will probably simultaneously result in more droughts and more flooding. We will probably have fewer snowstorms.
The Q&A after the lecture was short and fast, and the Bastard in the audience didn't get to blurt out a question (for the record, he also had to pee like a racehorse by lecture's end). There was an interesting question about the lack of tropical cyclones in the Southeast Pacific and the South Atlantic- the climate is just not right for cyclones to form, a cold sea surface and strong wind shear combine to prevent this from occurring.
After the lecture, Dr Sobel was signing copies of his new book, Storm Surge: Hurricane Sandy, Our Changing Climate, and Extreme Weather of the Past and Future. The lecture itself was another triumph for the Secret Science Club- a timely exploration of a topic which has been on the minds of many New Yorkers, two years after one of the worst disasters the region has ever faced.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Cursed? Karst!
The geology of West-Central Florida is typified by a karst formation, strata of soluble rock riddled (couldn't resist) with holes and gaps through the action of acidified water. Sinkholes are a common feature of karst landscapes, especially when ground water is removed from the formation. Further hydrological disruptions can occur as development retards the absorption of the rainwater which, under normal conditions, would replenish the groundwater. With increased development, and increased stress on groundwater resources, the incidence of sinkholes is likely to increase.
The real problem is unsustainable development on unstable geological formations. Development on unstable karst landscapes, ephemeral barrier islands and low-lying flood plains is problematic. Of course, there are very few legal impediments to unsustainable development in unsuitable areas, and an insufficiently knowledgable public will continue to build and rebuild on locations known to be unsafe.
Regarding the karst landscape of Florida, I have no solution to the problem of dissolution, I can just point to the problem and nerd out about the geology involved.
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Secret Science Club Post-Lecture Recap: A Whale of a Subject
Dr Gruber's lecture was titled The 'Aliens' Beneath the Waves, an apt title for a discussion of some gloriously strange denizens of the deep. He jokingly referred to himself (being an expert of marine biofluorescence) as the 'Glowing Guy' and stated that he had a goal to travel to the top of the world, where it is dark for half of the year. This entailed a year of dry-suit SCUBA diving, after which he was still miserable in the Arctic, continually asking himself, "Was this a good idea?" He jokingly detailed a couple of his bad ideas, such as a one-person submersible which had a tendency to spin and a swim with sharks during which he tested the use of a hockey helmet as protection. He traveled to Greenland with a small crew from the American Museum of Natural History, among them curator of ichthyology Dr John Sparks. Before their expedition, there were only about three-hundred Arctic fish species described. While Dr Gruber went to Greenland to find adventure, he found a dripping mess, much like 'an icebox left open'. He described the powerful experience of seeing the melting of Greenland firsthand. Dr Gruber displayed the neologism 'solastalgia', coined to describe the cumulative impact of climatic and environmental change on mental, emotional, and spiritual health. He stated that he didn't like the concept because it conveys a feeling of despair which can prevent humans from realizing that we can change our current course.
Dr Gruber then described a course of study that he recently embarked upon, a study to determine if we can learn to communicate with sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus). We are not alone on the planet... how can we break the interspecies communication barrier as a means of connecting to nature? He half-jokingly said that learning to communicate with sperm whales could one day be a springboard to communicating with aliens.
Sperm whales are deep divers. Trained human free-divers are able to hold their breath for approximately five minutes- Dr Gruber quipped that we should recruit athletes as scientists, a cadre of mermaids and mermen to explore the deeps. Sperm whales can dive to a depth of one-and-a-half miles on a single breath, remaining underwater for about two hours, then resting for five or six minutes. The have the largest known mammalian brains, weighing up to eighteen pounds. They communicate in rhythmic social 'codas' (different dialects exist among diverse populations)- patterns of broadband clicks. They also use these clicks for an echolocation more sensitive than human-designed sonar. It's possible that they communicate by forming three-dimensional sound 'images' analogous to holograms.
Whales evolved from artiodactyls, even-toed hoofed mammals. Their terrestrial ancestors most likely resembled hippos. They have had a long time to evolve to their current marine environment- among modern whales, the Odontocetes (toothed whales) split from the Mysticetes (baleen whales) about 34 million years ago. Put succinctly, sperm whales are ancient. Dr Gruber waxed lyrical about looking a whale in the eye, and noting that curiosity is apparent.
Dr Gruber's foray into cetology began two years ago, when he participated in a fellowship at Harvard. He arrived known as 'the Jellyfish Guy'. During this fellowship, Dr Gruber played a whale song to a cryptographer, ho asked him how many whale sounds he had, then invited him to a machine learning group. Sperm whales produce sound with organs known as monkey lips and the vast reserve of spermaceti oil and waxes in their heads focus the sounds. Besides the series of clicks known as codas, sperm whales also produce sounds known as creaks and trumpets. Sometimes the whales touch their jaws together to allow bone-to-bone communication.
Among the machine learning group, Dr Gruber, playing his whale songs, joked that he felt like a kid playing with Tonka trucks, but the machine learning experts were hooked as they analyzed the spectrograms. They wanted to know which whale expert had the largest data set of whale songs. and contacted Dr Shane Gero of the Dominica Sperm Whale Project. The collaboration resulted in a paper: Deep Machine Learning Techniques for the Detection and Classification of Sperm Whale Bioacoustics. Dr Gruber was faced with the challenge: what do we do with this? He convened a two day conference with scientists from many disciplines to study the subject, and somewhat sheepishly rattled off the tongue-twister of a name of the conference: Novel Ways to Non-invasively Visualize/Characterize/Decipher the Sonic Communication of Marine Mammals, Particularly Sperm Whales (Physeter macrocephalus), via Compact, Low-noise, High-resolution Underwater Devices.
Dr Gruber averred that we can do this, we will be able to communicate with whales. He rattled off some interesting topics to explore- do whales talk about the past? He likened the development of communication with whales to Jane Goodall's discovery of tool use among chimpanzees in terms of game-changing discoveries.
One of the main results of the conference would be the development of non-invasive swimming robots that could track whales and conduct breath analysis of whales. There are about 300,000 sperm whales in the planet's oceans. Whale tags must be improved, with non-invasive designs developed- one tag design is patterned after remoras. One difficulty in studying whale communications is the 'cocktail party problem'- how do we distinguish communications? An integration of visual and acoustic data must be obtained from an array of microphones and cameras to figure out what is being communicated.
Dr Gruber then gave a quick 'how did I get here?' narrative. Most of his work in the field of animal communications involved fluorescence in marine life- animals take in blue light and employ it in secret channels of communication, revealed through the use of special equipment. He began this portion of the lecture by showing us video of the first fluorescent Arctic fish found. He then displayed some lovely footage of tiny flashlight fish (Anomalops katoptron) in the Solomon Islands:
He positively rhapsodized about the schooling behavior of these tiny fish, quipping that they formed a sort of 'blue brick road' as they swam in formation. He described them as 'the weirdos of the fish world', noting that they have highly vascularized sacs under their eyes in which they nourish the bioluminescent bacteria which provide their light. The fish flee from artificial light, so super-sophisticated cameras are needed to film them- a 64,000 light intensity camera was used to video them from a distance. The underwater ballet of these fish is collective behavior, as ad hoc leaders school in darkness. Dr Gruber hypothesized that the deep sea might be filled with schooling fish which flee the lights of submersibles.
Fluorescence was also found in the swell shark (Cephaloscyllium ventriosum), formerly thought of as an uninteresting little shark. The sharks exhibit sexual dimorphism in their fluorescent patterns, with females having 'masks' clustered around their faces:
To understand how the sharks perceive their world, Dr Gruber brought shark specimens to an eye doctor, who discovered that the sharks only have one pigment in the cone cells of their eyes, while humans have RGB pigments. Dr Gruber had to design a camera which filtered out wavelengths in order to mimic the sharks' eyes.
Dr Gruber also discovered fluorescence in a hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata):
Dr Gruber showed an uproariously funny video (which I haven't tracked down online) of himself testing the vision of a turtle by flashing a color chart at it, joking, "This is as nerdy as SCUBA diving gets!" In order to figure out the perception of a turtle, he employed a hyperspectral satellite camera which can hold a lot of data... while it has broad color. Sea turtle eyes have drops of oil in their cone cells which help them to perceive fluorescence. Dr Gruber then showed us mock-ups of vision charts for various organisms, with humans having poor low-light vision while sharks have poor distance vision, but an acute sense for detecting motion.
Dr Gruber quipped that some of his work isn't glamorous, such as scooping dirty water out of a canal in Mystic, CT in order to study Ctenophores, or comb jellies, which are gelatinous plankton. Ctenophores are studied primarily because they can show us of how neurons evolved. In order to study animals such as ctenophores, Dr Gruber wanted to develop gentle robots in order to collect them without harming them. Dr Gruber noted, "We create the future, we don't need to kill animals in order to study them." A gentle robot which exerts one-tenth of the pressure of a human eyelid was developed to study jellyfish, and it can also be repurposed to pick strawberries without bruising them. Use of this robot didn't stress the jellyfish and initiate self-repair responses. Another design was inspired by origami, it folds to encase specimens... Dr Gruber joked that it was a 'spa treatment' for organisms, which could be studied physiologically and scanned to create three-dimensional models. Again, Dr Gruber stated that there is no need to kill animal specimens, and made the case for a super-intentional future: we make the future, and we can determine what sort of artificial intelligence we create. "There's no need for killers", he joked, "Soft robots will only kill a few people." He then displayed video of a glove which can be used to control a submersible's robotic arm... a 'squishy' robot arm. This human extension will allow interaction between researchers and marine life.
The displays of fluorescent marine life continued, with images of pyrosomes (chordates, they are distant relatives of ours) and box jellyfish ('the rockstars of the jellyfish world', with 24 eyes of 4 varieties and a venom which packs a whallop).
After this long digression about his 'origin story' as an animal communication researcher, Dr Gruber then returned to the subject
of whales, citing Roger and Katie Payne's recordings of humpback whales as an inspiration. Whale songs have been recorded since the 1950s after naval hydrophones picked them up. Returning to the sperm whale, Dr Gruber noted that they live in matriarchal societies, with males leaving their birth pods but often returning up to fifteen years later. He displayed a diagram of the two-hundred and fifty pound heart of a sperm whale and described it as 'a linebacker of a heart'. Having a big heart himself, he finished his lecture by stating, in the face of a Sixth Extinction, we can change course.
The lecture was followed by a Q&A session. The first question involved the use of Green Fluorescent Protein in neurological research, which was covered in his 2014 lecture. There are eels with bilirubin-binding fluorescent proteins and sharks with tryptophan-derived fluorescence. Regarding fluorescent sea turtles, out of the seven extant species, only the leatherback turtle doesn't exhibit fluorescence. With regards to the B-52 Whale or Lonely Whale, which was picked up by a Navy hydrophone, while it may be a specimen of a exceedingly rare whale, it might just be a 'bad singer', using a different frequency than its compatriots.
Regarding the development of gentler collection techniques, Dr Gruber noted that scientists generally have a low impact on marine populations, but that they must set examples for others- he confessed, "I have fish blood on my hands." A question about the original notation of sperm whale recordings, Dr Gruber stated that it was done by hand, using recordings of the small population of well-known sperm whales off Dominica. There were questions regarding 'conversations' that whales might engage in... how do adults and infants commnicate? Do whales employ subterfuge? Dr Gruber joked that he had a nightmare that all the whales were swearing all the time, "That whale is a jerk!" He noted that communicating with whales, and figuring out their communications, has to get better than what we are doing now. This has to be a deep listening project, without some of the ethical lapses former researchers engaged in back in the 'dark days of whale research' which involved LSD and less savory... uhhh... stuff.
Some bastard in the audience asked about the differences in sound-producing anatomy between the baleen whales and the sperm whale in particular. Baleen whales echolocate and their songs are probably involved in mating rituals. Sperm whales, however, are so weird, so different from baleen whales and dolphins that it is hard to compare them. The closest relatives they have among the cetaceans is the pygmy sperm whale (Kogia breviceps), but they are relatively distant relations.
I often talk about the 'Secret Science Sweet Spot' when I write the lecture recaps, and I have to say that Dr Gruber hit on all cylinders. His lecture was that perfect blend of hard science, adventure narrative, and advocacy, leavened with humor and illustrated by glorious photographs and video. Dr Gruber also conveyed a sense of optimism which I sometimes find lacking in myself- his avowal 'WE MAKE THE FUTURE' was a much-needed rallying cry. I actually thanked him for his optimism after the lecture. Also, this was Dr Gruber's third Secret Science Club lecture, each delivered in five year intervals... it was delightful to see his career trajectory in these three lectures. His first appearance on the SSC stage was as a young scientist speaking as an adjunct to a senior colleague. His second lecture was about a very specific topic, a course of study which cemented his reputation not only as a scientist, but as an explorer. This third lecture was that of a 'mature' researcher, engaged in a wide-ranging project involving colleagues from many disciplines. Put in gaming terms, each lecture represented a levelling-up. I'm a bio guy, and I've been privileged to attend these three lectures at three stages of Dr Gruber's career, and I have to say that this was one of the best Secret Science Club lectures of all. Kudos to Dr Gruber, Dorian and Margaret, and the staff of the beautiful Bell House.
While I haven't found any long video which would pertain to the main subject of this lecture, Dr Gruber has a lot of videos featuring specatacular imagery. Pour yourself a nice, refreshing beverage, and bask in the glory of SCIENCE!
