I've long been fascinated with the country of Iran, and the obsession that American right-wingers have with it. I was a young child when the Shah of Iran, installed as an American-British puppet to further the interests of British Petroleum, was deposed and the new regime took a bunch of westerners hostage. I have long maintained that American hostility to Iran, rooted in American hostility to democratic movements in nations with fucktons of patroleum, has been one of the major policy blunders of the 20th Century, one which has bled, literally, over into the twenty-first century.
Recently, I predicted to a friend of mine that the Trump administration would seek to start a war with Iran. Now, we have National Security Adviser Michael Flynn rattling the sabre about Iran, making a vague threat about putting Iran 'on notice'. Given the stupidity and belligerence of the occupants of the White House, I am genuinely concerned that there will be an attack on Iran. Sure, the testing of that ballistic missile was a provocation, but it accomplished what it was meant to do- it provoked. I just hope that there are some responsible adults in Washington who can de-escalate this situation before it leads to tragedy.
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"On notice" just sounds so vague--it could mean anything from "please locate your nearest shelter" to "Strongly-worded Tweet to follow." Although Flynn has, I believe, deleted his Twitter account, so...
I'm not sure where war with Iran fits in between planned aggressions against Mexican banditos and giving Australia a swirly. Team Trump needs a nap. They are cranky.
That Australia thing really has me puzzled- I mean, who could ask for better friends?
Oh, hi, Canadians... you know what I meant.
Vague can be a feature, or a bug. If it's a feature Trump can say later, after the radiation cloud has dissipated, that "we warned them."
I was a little freaked out yesterday when I saw the breaking news, until I realized I have absolutely no idea what "Put on notice" means in terms of international policy.
I don't believe most Americans understand Iran very well. I could go on about how diverse it is, how many young people of military age it has, but I think for America's current purposes, reminding everyone it has three times the land mass of Iraq, 5 times the population of Iraq, and one of the largest militaries in the world should suffice.
Of course, the President apparently also threatened to invade Mexico yesterday, so this is all going to get interesting very quickly.
1.) The ballistic missile the Iranians tested is not really a provocation. It is specifically allowed under the JCPOA as long as the missile is not capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Everyone who is not a Trump toady or an 'Iran Hawk' agrees they are compliant.
2.) War with Iran is possibly, perhaps even likely. On the one hand, Trump campaigned against 'stupid wars' and 'nation building'. Certainly no war HE starts will be stupid, and he would avoid occupation and counter insurgency, keeping his wars short and very bloody.
3.) He sees the US as allied with Russia in Syria. Russia is allied with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is an Iranian ally. So the US is more allied with Iran than he wants to admit.
4.) I don't think he'll actually launch preemptive military action against Iran - that's probably more likely to be North Korea. But as tensions rise in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Oman, where there is precious little maneuvering room, shit is going to happen by accident.
Better dig a neck-deep hole...
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